Heave and settlement of soils in discontinuous permafrost regions may be predicted using a model based on capillary stress theory. A one-dimensional numerical method has been developed which couples temperature and ground water migration to or from a freeze/thaw front and predicts the resultant ground heave/settlement. This model is among the first to predict both heave and settlement based on seasonal natural ground surface thermal disturbances. The results of the model are presented as graphs of time-dependent temperatures, excess pore water pressures, water contents, heave and settlement, and frost and thaw penetrations versus depth. The heave/settlement predictions follow closely experimental results presented elsewhere and indicate that an accurate model has been constructed within the limitations of the chosen data and the numerical technique.

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