The paper aims at quantifying the changes in notional reliability levels that result from redesigning an existing suezmax tanker to comply with new Common Structural Rules (CSR) requirement for ultimate vertical bending moment capacity. The probability of structural failure is calculated using a first-order reliability method. The evaluation of the wave-induced load effects that occur during long-term operation of the ship in the seaway is carried out in accordance to International Association of Classification Societies (IACS) recommended procedure. Comparative analysis of long-term distributions of vertical wave bending moment calculated by two independent computer seakeeping codes is performed. The still-water loads are defined on the basis of a statistical analysis of loading conditions from the loading manual. The ultimate collapse bending moment of the midship cross section, which is used as the basis for the reliability formulation, is evaluated by CSR single-step procedure and by program HULLCOLL for progressive collapse analysis of ship hull-girders. The reliability assessment is performed for as-built and corroded states of the existing ship and a reinforced design configuration complying with CSR. It is shown that hull-girder failure probability of suezmax tanker reinforced according to new CSR is reduced several times. Sensitivity analysis and a parametric study are performed to investigate the variability of results to the change of parameters of pertinent random variables within their plausible ranges.

Issue Section:
Research Papers
Keywords:
design engineering, failure (mechanical), naval engineering computing, reliability, ships, structural engineering
Topics:
Design, Event history analysis, Hull, Reliability, Safety, Ships, Stress, Tankers, Uncertainty, Water, Waves, Girders, Failure, Probability, Sensitivity analysis
1.
Paik
,
J. K.
, and
Faulkner
,
D.
, 2003, “
Reassessment of the M.V. Derbyshire Sinking With the Focus on Hull-Girder Collapse
,”
Mar. Technol. Soc. J.
0025-3324,
40
(
4
), pp.
258
–
269
.
2.
Faulkner
,
D.
, 1998, “
An Independent Assessment of the Sinking of the MV Derbyshire
,”
Soc. Nav. Archit. Mar. Eng., Trans.
0081-1661,
106
, pp.
59
–
103
.
3.
Faulkner
,
D.
, 2002, “
Shipping Safety—A Matter of Concern
,”
Ingenia
,
13
, pp.
13
–
20
.
4.
Guedes Soares
,
C.
, 1992, “
On A. Nitta et al. “Basis of IACS Unified Longitudinal Strength Standard
,””
Mar. Struct.
0951-8339,
5
(
6
), pp.
559
–
561
.
Crossref
Search ADS
 
5.
Faulkner
,
D.
, 1995, “
On A. Nitta et al. “Basis of IACS Unified Longitudinal Strength Standard
,””
Mar. Struct.
0951-8339,
8
(
3
), pp.
335
–
336
.
Crossref
Search ADS
 
6.
Parunov
,
J.
,
Senjanović
,
I.
, and
Pavićević
,
M.
, 2004, “
Use of Vertical Wave Bending Moments From Hydrodynamic Analysis in Design of Oil Tankers
,”
Trans. RINA
0035-8967,
146
, pp.
51
–
64
.
7.
ABS, DNV, Lloyd’s Register, 2006, Common Structural Rules for Double Hull Oil Tankers.
8.
Bureau Veritas, 2000, Rules for Classification of Steel Ships, Paris.
9.
Guedes Soares
,
C.
,
Dogliani
,
M.
,
Ostergaard
,
C.
,
Parmentier
,
G.
, and
Pedersen
,
P. T.
, 1996, “
Reliability Based Ship Structural Design
,”
Soc. Nav. Archit. Mar. Eng., Trans.
0081-1661,
104
, pp.
357
–
389
.
10.
Gordo
,
J. M.
,
Guedes Soares
,
C.
, and
Faulkner
,
D.
, 1996, “
Approximate Assessment of the Ultimate Longitudinal Strength of the Hull
,”
J. Ship Res.
0022-4502,
40
(
1
), pp.
60
–
69
.
11.
IACS, 2000, Recommendation No. 34.: Standard Wave Data Rev. 1.
12.
Steen
,
E.
,
Østvold
,
T. K.
, and
Valsgard
,
S.
, 2001, “
A New Design Model for Ultimate and Buckling Strength Assessment of Stiffened Plates
,”
Proceedings of the Eighth Practical Design of Ships and Mobile Units
.
13.
Guedes Soares
,
C.
, 1990, “
Influence of Human Control on the Probability Distribution of Maximum Still-Water Load Effects in Ships
,”
Mar. Struct.
0951-8339,
3
(
4
), pp.
319
–
339
.
Crossref
Search ADS
 
14.
Casella
,
G.
,
Dogliani
,
M.
, and
Guedes Soares
,
C.
, 1996, “
Reliability Based Design of the Primary Structure of Oil Tankers
,”
Proceedings of the 25th Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering
, Vol.
II
, pp.
217
–
224
.
15.
Gollwitzer
,
S.
,
Abdo
,
T.
, and
Rackwitz
,
R.
, 1988, FORM program manual, Munich.
16.
Qi
,
E.
,
Cui
,
W.
, and
Wan
,
Z.
, 2005, “
Comparative Study of Ultimate Hull-Girder Strength of Large Double Hull Tankers
,”
Mar. Struct.
0951-8339,
18
(
3
), pp.
227
–
249
.
Crossref
Search ADS
 
17.
Smith
,
C. S.
, 1977, “
Influence of Local Compressive Failure on Ultimate Longitudinal Strength of a Ship’s Hull
,”
Proceedings of the First Practical Design of Ships and Mobile Units
, pp.
73
–
79
.
18.
Guedes Soares
,
C.
, and
Teixeira
,
A. P.
, 2000, “
Structural Reliability of Two Bulk Carrier Designs
,”
Mar. Struct.
0951-8339,
13
(
2
), pp.
107
–
128
.
Crossref
Search ADS
 
19.
Guedes Soares
,
C.
, and
Dogliani
,
M.
, 2000, “
Probabilistic Modeling of Time-Varying Still-Water Load Effects in Tankers
,”
Mar. Struct.
0951-8339,
13
(
2
), pp.
129
–
143
.
Crossref
Search ADS
 
20.
Hogben
,
N.
,
Dacunha
,
N. M. C.
, and
Olliver
,
G. F.
, 1986,
Global Wave Statistics
,
British Maritime Technology Ltd.
,
Feltham
.
21.
Guedes Soares
,
C.
, 1999, “
On the Uncertainty in Long-Term Predictions of Wave Induced Loads on Ships
,”
Mar. Struct.
0951-8339,
12
(
3
), pp.
171
–
182
.
Crossref
Search ADS
 
22.
Guedes Soares
,
C.
,
Brown
,
D. T.
,
Cariou
,
A.
,
Casella
,
G.
,
Haddara
,
M.
,
Jankowski
,
J.
,
Mavrakos
,
S.
,
Motter
,
L.
,
Nedergaard
,
H.
,
Nestegard
,
A.
,
Shen
,
J. W.
,
Watanabe
,
I.
, 1997, “
Loads
,”
Proceedings of the 13th International Ship and Offshore Structures Congress
,
Norway
, Vol.
1
, pp.
59
–
122
.
23.
Guedes Soares
,
C.
, 1991, “
Effect of Transfer Function Uncertainty on Short Term Ship Responses
,”
Ocean Eng.
0029-8018,
18
(
4
), pp.
329
–
362
.
Crossref
Search ADS
 
24.
Guedes Soares
,
C.
, 1996, “
On the Definition of Rule Requirements for Wave Induced Vertical Bending Moments
,”
Mar. Struct.
0951-8339,
9
(
3–4
), pp.
409
–
425
.
25.
Schellin
,
T. E.
,
Ostergaard
,
C.
, and
Guedes Soares
,
C.
, 1996, “
Uncertainty Assessment of Low Frequency Load Effects for Containerships
,”
Mar. Struct.
0951-8339,
9
(
3–4
), pp.
313
–
332
.
26.
Det Norske Veritas, 1993, WAVESHIP, Wave Loads on Slender Vessels, SESAM User’s Manual, Høvik.
27.
Det Norske Veritas, 1993, POSTRESP, Interactive Postprocessor for General Response Analysis, SESAM User’s Manual, Høvik.
28.
Salvesen
,
N.
,
Tuck
,
E. O.
, and
Faltinsen
,
O.
, 1970, “
Ship Motions and Sea Loads
,”
Soc. Nav. Archit. Mar. Eng., Trans.
0081-1661,
78
, pp.
250
–
278
.
29.
Parunov
,
J.
, and
Senjanović
,
I.
, 2003, “
Incorporating Model Uncertainty in Ship Reliability Analysis
,”
Soc. Nav. Archit. Mar. Eng., Trans.
0081-1661,
111
, pp.
377
–
408
.
30.
Casella
,
G.
, and
Rizzuto
,
E.
, 1998, “
Second-Level Reliability Analysis of a Double-Hull Oil Tanker
,”
Mar. Struct.
0951-8339,
11
(
9
), pp.
373
–
399
.
Crossref
Search ADS
 
31.
Mansour
,
A.
, and
Høvem
,
L.
, 1994, “
Probability-Based Ship Structural Safety Analysis
,”
J. Ship Res.
0022-4502,
38
(
4
), pp.
329
–
339
.
32.
Guedes Soares
,
C.
, 1992, “
Combination of Primary Load Effects in Ship Structures
,”
Probab. Eng. Mech.
0266-8920,
7
, pp.
103
–
111
.
Crossref
Search ADS
 
33.
Wang
,
X.
, and
Moan
,
T.
, 1996, “
Stochastic and Deterministic Combinations of Still Water and Wave Bending Moments in Ships
,”
Mar. Struct.
0951-8339,
9
(
8
), pp.
787
–
810
.
Crossref
Search ADS
 
34.
Teixeira
,
A. P.
, and
Guedes Soares
,
C.
, 2002, “
Assessment of Partial Safety Factors for Tankers
,”
JCSS Workshop on Reliability Based Code Calibration
,
Switzerland
.
35.
Det Norske Veritas, 1992, Structural Reliability Analysis of Marine Structures Classification Notes No. 30.6.
36.
Parunov
,
J.
,
Senjanović
,
I.
, and
Guedes Soares
,
C.
, 2007, “
Hull-Girder Reliability of New Generation Oil Tankers
,”
Mar. Struct.
0951-8339,
20
(
1–2
), pp.
49
–
70
.
Copyright © 2008
 by American Society of Mechanical Engineers
You do not currently have access to this content.