To investigate the resilience of interconnected critical infrastructures (CIs), a framework combining dynamic modeling and resilience analysis is proposed. Resilience is defined in this work as the capacity of a system to absorb the impacts of perturbations and recover quickly from disruptive states. It is seen as a property of the system, which depends on a number of design, operation, and control parameters. Within this framework, we introduce the concept of resilience regions in the parameters space: as long as the parameters values remain inside these regions during operation, the system visits only recoverable states or, in other words, it maintains nominal operation or recovers quickly to it. Based on this concept, we perform a resilience analysis of two interconnected critical infrastructures, a gas network and an electric power system. The analysis is performed by numerical calculation of the resilience conditions in terms of design, operation, and control parameters values for given failure scenarios. To render computationally feasible analysis, we resort to an abstract representation of the system dynamics by a linear model of switching dynamics. Although the high-level modeling adopted may suffer from predictive accuracy, the proposed framework can still provide valuable insights in the analysis of system resilience and its dependence on the design, operation, and control parameters under different failure scenarios, which can be valuable to inform the decision making process of CIs operators and other stakeholders.
Issue Section:
Research Papers
References
1.
Ellis
, J.
, Fisher
, D.
, Longstaff
, T.
, Pesante
, L.
, and Pethia
, R.
, 1997
, “Report to the President's Commission on Critical Infrastructure Protection
,” Software Engineering Institute, Carnegie–Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, Report No. CMU/SEI-97-SR-00333
.2.
Kröger
, W.
, 2008
, “Critical Infrastructures at Risk: A Need for a New Conceptual Approach and Extended Analytical Tools
,” Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf.
, 93
(12
), pp. 1781
–1787
.3.
Kröger
, W.
, and Zio
, E.
, 2011
, Vulnerable Systems
, Springer Science and Business Media
, London
.4.
Zio
, E.
, 2016
, “Challenges in the Vulnerability and Risk Analysis of Critical Infrastructures
,” Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf.
, 152
, pp. 137
–150
.5.
Zio
, E.
, 2016
, “Reliability Analysis of Systems of Systems
,” IEEE Reliab. Mag.
, Feb. 2016
(Spec. Iss.
), pp. 1
–6
.6.
Clinton
, W.
, 1998
, “Presidential Decision Directive 63
,” The White House, Washington, DC, accessed Oct. 7, 2015, https://fas.org/irp/offdocs/pdd/pdd-63.htm7.
Bush
, G. W.
, 2002
, “Homeland Security Presidential Directive-3 (HSPD-3)
,” The White House, Washington, DC, accessed Oct. 7, 2015, https://fas.org/irp/offdocs/nspd/hspd-3.htm8.
Bush
, G. W.
, 2002
, “The National Security Strategy of the United States of America
,” The White House
, Washington, DC.9.
Bush
, G. W.
, 2003
, “Homeland Security Presidential Directive-7 (HSPD-7)
,” U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Washington, DC, accessed Oct. 8, 2015, https://www.dhs.gov/homeland-security-presidential-directive-710.
Obama
, B.
, 2013
, “Presidential Policy Directive 21: Critical Infrastructure Security and Resilience
,” The White House
, Washington, DC
.11.
EU Commission
, 2005
, “Green Paper on a European Programme for Critical Infrastructure Protection
,” Brussels, Belgium, COM (2005) 576 Final.12.
EU Commission
, 2006
, “European Union Directive Draft
,” Brussels, Belgium, COM (2006) 787.13.
Lindström
, M.
, and Olsson
, S.
, 2009
, “The European Programme for Critical Infrastructure Protection
,” Crisis Management in the European Union
, Springer
, Berlin
, pp. 37
–59
.14.
Hämmerli
, B. M.
, and Renda
, A.
, 2010
, Protecting Critical Infrastructure in the EU
, Centre for European Policy Studies
, Brussels, Belgium
.15.
Luiijf
, E.
, Burger
, H.
, Klaver
, M.
, and Marieke
, H.
, 2003
, “Critical Infrastructure Protection in the Netherlands: A Quick-Scan
,” EICAR Conference Best Paper Proceedings
, EICAR
, Copenhagen
, Denmark
, Vol. 19.16.
Intelligence C. Information Security Center (CIS Sapienza), 2013, “
2013 Italian Cyber Security Report. Critical Infrastructure and Other Sensitive Sectors Readiness
,” Roma, Italy.17.
IRGC
, 2006
, “White Paper on Managing and Reducing Social Vulnerabilities From Coupled Critical Infrastructures
,” International Risk Governance Council
, Geneva, Switzerland
.18.
Chertoff
, M.
, 2009
, “National Infrastructure Protection Plan: Partnering to Enhance Protection and Resiliency
,” Department of Homeland Security (DHS)
, Washington, DC
.19.
Yusta
, J. M.
, Correa
, G. J.
, and Lacal-Arántegui
, R.
, 2011
, “Methodologies and Applications for Critical Infrastructure Protection: State-of-the-Art
,” Energy Policy
, 39
(10
), pp. 6100
–6119
.20.
Lewis
, T. G.
, 2014
, Critical Infrastructure Protection in Homeland Security: Defending a Networked Nation
, Wiley
, Hoboken, NJ
.21.
Brothers
, R.
, 2015
, “A Review of Progress by the Department of Homeland Security, Science and Technology Directorate
,” U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Washington, DC, accessed Nov. 23, 2015, https://www.dhs.gov/news/2015/10/27/written-testimony-st-under-secretary-house-committee-science-space-and-technology22.
Wildavsky
, A. B.
, 1988
, Searching for Safety
, Transaction Publishers
, Piscataway, NJ
.23.
Bruneau
, M.
, Chang
, S. E.
, Eguchi
, R. T.
, Lee
, G. C.
, O'Rourke
, T. D.
, Reinhorn
, A. M.
, Shinozuka
, M.
, Tierney
, K.
, Wallace
, W. A.
, and von Winterfeldt
, D.
, 2003
, “A Framework to Quantitatively Assess and Enhance the Seismic Resilience of Communities
,” Earthquake Spectra
, 19
(4
), pp. 733
–752
.24.
Haimes
, Y. Y.
, Crowther
, K.
, and Horowitz
, B. M.
, 2008
, “Homeland Security Preparedness: Balancing Protection With Resilience in Emergent Systems
,” Syst. Eng.
, 11
(4
), pp. 287
–308
.25.
Hollnagel
, E.
, Christopher
, P. N.
, and Sidney
, D.
, 2008
, Resilience Engineering Perspectives, Volume 1: Remaining Sensitive to the Possibility of Failure, Ashgate Publishing, Ltd., Hampshire, UK.26.
Aven
, T.
, 2011
, “On Some Recent Definitions and Analysis Frameworks for Risk, Vulnerability, and Resilience
,” Risk Anal.
, 31
(4
), pp. 515
–522
.27.
Society of Risk Analysis
, 2015
, “Glossary of the Specialty Group on Foundations of Risk Analysis
,” Society for Risk Analysis, McLean, VA, accessed Nov. 2, 2015, http://www.sra.org/news/sra-develops-glossary-risk-related-terms28.
Zio
, E.
, and Sansavini
, G.
, 2008
, “Modeling Failure Cascades in Networks Systems Due to Distributed Random Disturbances and Targeted Intentional Attacks
,” European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2008)
, pp. 1861
–1865
.29.
Ouyang
, M.
, Dueñas-Osorio
, L.
, and Min
, X.
, 2012
, “A Three-Stage Resilience Analysis Framework for Urban Infrastructure Systems
,” Struct. Saf.
, 36–37
, pp. 23
–31
.30.
Fang
, Y. P.
, Pedroni
, N.
, and Zio
, E.
, 2014
, “Comparing Network-Centric and Power Flow Models for the Optimal Allocation of Link Capacities in a Cascade–Resilient Power Transmission Network
,” IEEE Syst. J.
, PP
(99
), pp. 1
–12
.31.
Cavallaro
, M.
, Asprone
, D.
, Latora
, V.
, and Manfredi
, G.
, 2014
, “Assessment of Urban Ecosystem Resilience Through Hybrid Social-Physical Complex Networks
,” Comput.-Aided Civ. Infrastruct. Eng.
, 29
(8
), pp. 608
–625
.32.
Dessavre
, D. G.
, Ramirez-Marquez
, J. E.
, and Barker
, K.
, 2016
, “Multidimensional Approach to Complex System Resilience Analysis
,” Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf.
, 149
, pp. 34
–43
.33.
Francis
, R.
, and Bekera
, B.
, 2014
, “A Metric and Frameworks for Resilience Analysis of Engineered and Infrastructure Systems
,” Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf.
, 121
, pp. 90
–103
.34.
Cimellaro
, G. P.
, Villa
, O.
, and Bruneau
, M.
, 2014
, “Resilience-Based Design of Natural Gas Distribution Networks
,” J. Infrastruct. Syst.
, 21
(1
), p. 05014005
.35.
Bensi
, M.
, Kiureghian
, A. D.
, and Straub
, D.
, 2014
, “Framework for Post-Earthquake Risk Assessment and Decision Making for Infrastructure Systems
,” ASCE-ASME J. Risk Uncertainty Eng. Syst., Part A
, 1
(1
), p. 040140
.36.
Hosseini
, S.
, and Barker
, K.
, 2016
, “Modeling Infrastructure Resilience Using Bayesian Networks: A Case Study of Inland Waterway Ports
,” Comput. Ind. Eng.
, 93
, pp. 252
–266
.37.
Lee
, E. E.
, Mitchell
, J. E.
, and Wallace
, W. A.
, 2007
, “Restoration of Services in Interdependent Infrastructure Systems: A Network Flows Approach
,” IEEE Trans. Syst., Man Cybern., Part C
, 37
(6
), pp. 1303
–1317
.38.
González
, A. D.
, Duenas-Osorio
, L.
, Sánchez-Silva
, M.
, and Medaglia
, A. L.
, 2015
, “The Interdependent Network Design Problem for Optimal Infrastructure System Restoration
,” Comput.-Aided Civ. Infrastruct. Eng.
, 31
(5
), pp. 334
–350
.39.
Cavdaroglu
, B.
, Hammel
, E.
, Mitchell
, J. E.
, and Sharkey
, T. C.
, 2013
, “Integrating Restoration and Scheduling Decisions for Disrupted Interdependent Infrastructure Systems
,” Ann. Oper. Res.
, 203
(1
), pp. 279
–294
.40.
Dudenhoeffer
, D.
, Permann
, M.
, Wolsey
, S.
, and Timpany
, R.
, 2007
, “Interdependency Modeling and Emergency Response
,” 2007 Summer Computer Simulation Conference, Society for Computer Simulation International
, San Diego, CA, July 16–19, pp. 1230
–1237
.41.
Sharkey
, T.
, Nurre
, S.
, Nguyen
, H.
, Chow
, J.
, Mitchell
, J.
, and Wallace
, W.
, 2016
, “Identification and Classification of Restoration Interdependencies in the Wake of Hurricane Sandy
,” J. Infrastruct. Syst.
, 22
(1
), p. 04015007
.42.
Hassel
, H.
, and Johansson
, J.
, 2013
, “Mapping Societal Functions, Flows and Dependencies to Strengthen Community Resilience–Results From an Initial Study
,” Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting
(SRA 2013
), Paper No. W2-K.1.43.
Eusgeld
, I.
, Nan
, C.
, and Dietz
, S.
, 2011
, “System-of-Systems Approach for Interdependent Critical Infrastructures
,” Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf.
, 96
(6
), pp. 679
–686
.44.
Galbusera
, L.
, Ntalampiras
, S.
, Azzini
, I.
, and Giannopoulos
, G.
, 2013
, “Resilience Assessment and Optimization Methodology for Critical Infrastructure
,” JRC Technical Reports, Report No. JRC85475.45.
Ferrario
, E.
, Pedroni
, N.
, and Zio
, E.
, 2015
, “Analysis of the Robustness and Recovery of Critical Infrastructures Within a Multi-State System-of-Systems Framework, in Presence of Epistemic Uncertainty
,” ASCE-ASME J. Risk Uncertainty Eng. Syst., Part B
, 1
(3
), p. 031001
.46.
Zio
, E.
, 2009
, “Reliability Engineering: Old Problems and New Challenges
,” Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf.
, 94
(2
), pp. 125
–141
.47.
Buldyrev
, S. V.
, Parshani
, R.
, Paul
, G.
, Stanley
, H. E.
, and Havlin
, S.
, 2010
, “Catastrophic Cascade of Failures in Interdependent Networks
,” Nature
, 464
(7291
), pp. 1025
–1028
.48.
Ouyang
, M.
, 2014
, “Review on Modeling and Simulation of Interdependent Critical Infrastructure Systems
,” Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf.
, 121
, pp. 43
–60
.49.
Valencia
, V. V.
, Thal
, A. E.
, Colombi
, J. M.
, and Sitzabee
, W. E.
, 2015
, “Infrastructure Decay Modeling With the Input–Output Inoperability Model
,” ASCE-ASME J. Risk Uncertainty Eng. Syst., Part B
, 1
(1
), p. 011006
.50.
Zio
, E.
, and Sansavini
, G.
, 2013
, “Vulnerability of Smart Grids With Variable Generation and Consumption: A System of Systems Perspective
,” IEEE Trans. Syst., Man, Cybern.: Syst.
, 43
(3
), pp. 477
–487
.51.
Setola
, R.
, De Porcellinis
, S.
, and Sforna
, M.
, 2009
, “Critical Infrastructure Dependency Assessment Using the Input–Output Inoperability Model
,” Int. J. Crit. Infrastruct. Prot.
, 2
(4
), pp. 170
–178
.52.
Jonkeren
, O.
, and Giannopoulos
, G.
, 2014
, “Analysing Critical Infrastructure Failure With a Resilience Inoperability Input–Output Model
,” Econ. Syst. Res.
, 26
(1
), pp. 39
–59
.53.
Mayne
, D. Q.
, Rawlings
, J. B.
, Rao
, C. V.
, and Scokaert
, P. O.
, 2000
, “Constrained Model Predictive Control: Stability and Optimality
,” Automatica
, 36
(6
), pp. 789
–814
.54.
Kouvaritakis
, B.
, and Cannon
, M.
, 2015
, “Developments in Robust and Stochastic Predictive Control in the Presence of Uncertainty
,” ASCE-ASME J. Risk Uncertainty Eng. Syst., Part B
, 1
(2
), p. 021003
.55.
Liu
, X.
, Prodan
, I.
, and Zio
, E.
, 2014
, “On the Resilience Analysis of Interconnected Systems by a Set-Theoretic Approach
,” Safety and Reliability: Methodology and Applications
, CRC Press
, Leiden, The Netherlands
, pp. 197
–205
.56.
Saltelli
, A.
, 2002
, “Sensitivity Analysis for Importance Assessment
,” Risk Anal.
, 22
(3
), pp. 579
–590
.57.
Fang
, Y. P.
, Pedroni
, N.
, and Zio
, E.
, 2016
, “Resilience-Based Component Importance Measures for Critical Infrastructure Network Systems
,” IEEE Trans. Reliab.
, 65
(2
), pp. 502
–512
.58.
Turati
, P.
, Pedroni
, N.
, and Zio
, E.
, 2016
, “An Adaptive Simulation Framework for the Exploration of Extreme and Unexpected Events in Dynamic Engineered Systems
,” Risk Anal.
(Online).59.
Aven
, T.
, and Zio
, E.
, 2011
, “Some Considerations on the Treatment of Uncertainties in Risk Assessment for Practical Decision Making
,” Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf.
, 96
(1
), pp. 64
–74
.60.
Hadjipaschalis
, I.
, Poullikkas
, A.
, and Efthimiou
, V.
, 2009
, “Overview of Current and Future Energy Storage Technologies for Electric Power Applications
,” Renew. Sustainable Energy Rev.
, 13
(6
), pp. 1513
–1522
.61.
Luo
, X.
, Wang
, J.
, Dooner
, M.
, and Clarke
, J.
, 2015
, “Overview of Current Development in Electrical Energy Storage Technologies and the Application Potential in Power System Operation
,” Appl. Energy
, 137
, pp. 511
–536
.62.
Friedland
, B.
, 2005
, Control System Design: An Introduction to State-Space Methods
, Dover Publications
, Mineola, NY
.63.
Sun
, K.
, and Han
, Z.-X.
, 2005
, “Analysis and Comparison on Several Kinds of Models of Cascading Failure in Power System
,” 2005 IEEE/PES
Transmission & Distribution Conference & Exposition: Asia and Pacific
, Aug. 18.64.
Yi
, X. J.
, Shi
, J.
, Dong
, H. P.
, and Lai
, Y. H.
, 2015
, “Reliability Analysis of Repairable System With Multiple Fault Modes Based on Goal-Oriented Methodology
,” ASCE-ASME J. Risk Uncertainty Eng. Syst., Part B
, 2
(1
), p. 011003
.65.
Fang
, Y. P.
, Pedroni
, N.
, and Zio
, E.
, 2015
, “Optimization of Cascade-Resilient Electrical Infrastructures and Its Validation by Power Flow Modeling
,” Risk Anal.
, 35
(4
), pp. 594
–607
.66.
Cimellaro
, G. P.
, Reinhorn
, A. M.
, and Bruneau
, M.
, 2010
, “Framework for Analytical Quant1ification of Disaster Resilience
,” Eng. Struct.
, 32
(11
), pp. 3639
–3649
.67.
Ayyub
, B. M.
, 2015
, “Practical Resilience Metrics for Planning, Design, and Decision Making
,” ASCE-ASME J. Risk Uncertainty Eng. Syst., Part A
, 1
(3
), p. 04015008
.68.
Kalman
, R. E.
, 1963
, “Mathematical Description of Linear Dynamical Systems
,” J. Soc. Ind. Appl. Math., Ser. A
, 1
(2
), pp. 152
–192
.69.
Li
, Y. F.
, Pedroni
, N.
, and Zio
, E.
, 2013
, “A Memetic Evolutionary Multi-Objective Optimization Method for Environmental Power Unit Commitment
,” IEEE Trans. Power Syst.
, 28
(3
), pp. 2660
–2669
.70.
Nozick
, L. K.
, Turnquist
, M. A.
, Jones
, D. A.
, and Davis
, J. R.
, 2005
, “Assessing the Performance of Interdependent Infrastructures and Optimising Investments
,” Int. J. Crit. Infrastruct.
, 1
(2/3
), pp. 144
–154
.71.
Grigg
, C.
, Wong
, P.
, Albrecht
, P.
, Allan
, R.
, Bhavaraju
, M.
, Billinton
, R.
, Chen
, Q.
, Fong
, C.
, Haddad
, S.
, Kuruganty
, S.
, and Li
, W.
, 1999
, “The IEEE Reliability Test System-1996. A Report Prepared by the Reliability Test System Task Force of the Application of Probability Methods Subcommittee
,” IEEE Trans. Power Syst.
, 14
(3
), pp. 1010
–1020
.72.
Lofberg
, J.
, 2004
, “Yalmip: A Toolbox for Modeling and Optimization in MATLAB
,” CACSD Conference
, Taipei, Taiwan, pp. 284
–289
.Copyright © 2017 by ASME
You do not currently have access to this content.
