...Kalman Ziha The probabilistic safety analysis evaluates system reliability and failure probability by using statistics and probability theory. However, it cannot estimate the system safety uncertainties due to variabilities of probabilities in different system states. The article first summarizes...

... in building energy modeling, due to both random factors and imprecise knowledge. The framework is shown by a numerical case study of sizing cooling loads, in which uncertain climatic data are represented by probability distributions and human-driven activities are described by possibility distributions...

... n ( x n ) | θ ) The paper is organized as follows: In Sec. 2 , we make a brief introduction about copula functions. In Sec. 3 , copula-based expression for joint probability of the components is acquired based on copula and Markov process. In Sec. 4 , according...

... are proposed, which are entropy, conditional entropy, and mutual information associated with the probabilities of successful prediction and communication. A new probabilistic design framework for CPS network architecture is also proposed for resilience engineering, where several information fusion rules can...

... probability of each component is defined as a failure probability of filter replacement obtained by using a grace period to filter failure. Finally, based on an event tree, a core damage frequency has been estimated by multiplying discrete hazard frequencies by conditional decay heat removal failure...

... October 5, 2017. Assoc. Editor: Alba Sofi. 11 02 2017 19 09 2017 Aerospace Computational reliability methods Failure Mechanical Probability Spectral wave modeling Reliability based design With advanced design techniques, it is possible to prevent components' failures due...

.... In addition, the paper shows that the probability of simultaneous presence of critical events is practically insensitive to the distribution of the events durations. These counter-intuitive results provide the powerful opportunity to evaluate the risk of overlapping of random events through the mean duration...

.... The mainline piping in the high-risk category is thereby prioritized for inspection. An illustrative case study demonstrating the usability of the proposed RAA is presented. Once the probability density function of RFL has been derived, the next step involves performing smoothing (using...

... been characterized with known probabilities, a traditional MC uncertainty propagation procedure consists of the following three steps: Sampling: Sample the input uncertainty with a space filling method (e.g., the Latin hypercube sampling [ 22 ]) to obtain an ensemble D L = { x j...

... for solving stochastic inverse problems, which seeks a posterior probability density that is consistent with the model and the data in the sense that the push-forward of the posterior (through the computational model) matches the observed density on the observations almost everywhere. Given a set of potential...

... of y ; (3) Divide the domain of x i into M equally probable intervals, as shown in Fig. 6 ; (4) Assign the samples of y into divided intervals based on one-to-one mapping between the samples of x i and samples of y ; (5) Estimate V...

... of Statistical Mathematics, 10–3 Midori-cho, Tachikawa, Tokyo 190-8562, Japan. 2 Corresponding author. e-mail:  stewu@ism.ac.jp e-mail:  costasp@mie.uth.gr e-mail:  petros@ethz.ch In the Bayesian framework, the likelihood p ( D | θ ) represents the probability of observing data D...

... reliable. Fig. 5 The traditional BN for severe roll Table 3 Prior probability Factors Prior probability X 1 0.1 X 3 0.8 Table 4 The CPT for rough sea ( X 2 ) X 1 X 1 ′ X 2 0.8 0 X 2 ′ 0.2 1 Following...

... at the conceptual design stage. This paper investigates the role of probability of importance in quantifying the level of uncertainty in sketches by raising the following three research questions: How are the features in a sketch ranked? What is the probability of importance of features in a sketch? What...

... of interval stiffness or interval fractional damping, respectively. Mechanical Probability Random Structural reliability Structures Uncertainty It is clear that combining the results of this section with the previous one, it is possible to express uncertainties in both the fractional order...

...Alberto Di Matteo; Antonina Pirrotta In this paper, the probabilistic response of nonlinear systems driven by alpha-stable Lévy white noises is considered. The path integral solution is adopted for determining the evolution of the probability density function of nonlinear oscillators. Specifically...

... received October 16, 2016; published online June 12, 2017. Assoc. Editor: Ioannis Kougioumtzoglou. 22 06 2016 16 10 2016 Probability Random Structures Uncertainty In the last decades, the nonlocal beam theories have known a great interest. This is due to their ability...

... of s on the response at different locations of the rod are investigated by the Monte Carlo simulations. The results obtained highlight the importance of s in the probabilistic feature of the response. In particular, it is found that for a small coefficient of variation of s, the probability density...

...-mail:  angela.riccardello@unikore.it Probability Random Reliability Reliability based design Safety Structural reliability Valeria Artale Engineering and Architecture Faculty, University of Enna Kore, via delle Olimpiadi, Enna 94100, Italy e-mail: valeria.artale@unikore.it Giacomo Navarra1 Engineering...

... to complement deterministic models. The uncertainty of the influencing factors is typically included by modeling them as random variables, described through their probability density function (PDF). By combining those PDFs with the deterministic mathematical...